Migration into Australia has been fuelling a housing crisis, research from think tank the Institute of Public Affairs has revealed.

Dr Kevin You, senior research fellow at the conservative Institute of Public Affairs, said record migration intake had exacerbated housing shortages.

He pointed to IPA analysis that showed there were roughly 380,000 more new arrivals from overseas than new homes built over the 2022/23 financial year.

Nationwide net dwelling supply over the period stood at 148,600, while the intake through net overseas migration soared to 528,392 people.

With an average household size of 2.5 people per dwelling, the demand for housing generated by net overseas migration was 211,357, surpassing the supply of new homes by over 62,000, the IPA revealed.Dr You said the Federal Government failed to address the consequences of its migration program, labelling it “cruel” for both new arrivals and existing Aussies grappling with rising housing costs.

“This is an own-goal, entirely of the Federal Government’s own making; it controls the intake,” he said.IPA analysis of ABS and National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation data revealed that 90 per cent of SA4 regions across Australia saw fewer new houses built than new migrants arriving.

This disparity was largest in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, where every metropolitan area experienced housing shortages in relation to migration influx.
Among the city regions with the biggest imbalance between housing supply and migration intake were southeast Melbourne, Sydney’s CBD and inner south and Sydney’s southwest.

Net housing supply minus net overseas arrivals in each of these regions was about -20,000, according to the IPA.

But the region with by far the biggest imbalance between building supply and migration intake was inner Melbourne, where net building minus net migration intake was just over -32,000.

he worst imbalances in Queensland were in the Gold Coast and inner Brisbane, where the imbalance was about -10,000, respectively.

Dr You said the government’s “mismanagement” of migration was jeopardising the dream of homeownership for millions.He also acknowledged the historical importance of migration to Australia, but warned that the current “out-of-control” intake could erode long-term community support for migration. “Home ownership is foundational to the Australian way of life,” Dr You said.

“Every Australian who works hard deserves to own a home. But the government’s unplanned migration program is destroying the dream of home ownership for millions of Australians, including for new arrivals.

“Australians are getting left behind. For the first time in 40 years, per capita GDP has fallen for four consecutive quarters. At an individual level we are in a recession.”

But many economists disagreed about the effect migration was having on the housing market.

Economist Andrew Wilson of My Housing Market said the impact of migration on housing prices was “overstated”.

“It’s been the trade-up middle market that’s kept the market going,” he said, noting that the biggest spenders in the market were existing Australians who had benefited from years of equity gains on their homes.

These gains were being used to upgrade to more expensive houses, which was driving up prices, he said.

“Migration would have an effect, but it would be more on the rental market, particularly areas where there would be more people on temporary visas … Migrants usually don’t just start buying houses right away.”

PropTrack economist Angus Moore said housing supply issues predated the current influx of overseas migrants and prices had been rising strongly long before international borders were reopened following the Covid pandemic.

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said there were multiple, complex forces driving up prices and these extended well beyond migration intake alone.